From the President by David Beatty The World Summit on Salmon was held from June 10-13, 2003 in Vancouver, British Columbia. Robert T. Lackey, a fisheries biologist with the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency in Corvallis, Oregon, speculated on the future of salmon in the 21st Century and identified those conditions that would have to change in order for the salmon population declines of the 20th Century to be reversed. In his presentation, now published, "A Salmon-Centric View of the 21st Century in the Western United States", Lackey concludes that it is easier to forecast the salmon's long-term future. Over a period of a few years or decades, salmon populations exhibit patterns of relative abundance and scarcity that seem to synchronize with variations in ecological and social factors. However, the fundamental factors that, over the long-term, have lead to the salmon's "downward trajectory" are often masked by these short-term variations. Lackey states "it is arguably easier to predict the status of salmon in 2100 than it is in 2010". However he tempers this with reference to an urban planner who in 1900 speculated that the greatest challenge city engineers would face in the 20th century would be "that of disposing mountains of horse manure". Lackey states a simple truth: "In spite of abundant uncertainty about the relative importance of the various factors that drove the decline of wild salmon in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, we fundamentally recognize, we fundamentally know, the direct causes of the long-term decline". The cause list is long, is largely related to human activities and to poorly understood ocean and climatic conditions. Lackey's second statement of fact : "As we move into a new century in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho, in spite of ups and downs, good years and bad years, favorable and unfavorable ocean conditions, even newspaper headlines proclaiming record runs, wild salmon have been on a 150 year downward trend and wild runs are now at very low levels". If the direct reasons for the long-term decline in salmon populations are fairly well known and thoroughly studied and there is general support in the public to reverse these population declines, why is the likelihood of recovery so uncertain? Lackey's answer is straightforward as a "simple policy statement of fact": He states, "Effecting any change in the long-term downward trend for wild salmon is futile in the absence of shifts in the core drivers". What are Lackey's core drivers that are expressed in the way human enterprise alters freshwater, estuarine and marine habitats; constructs dams and other obstructions to migration; uses water; operates hatcheries; harvests salmon; affects prey species and many other limiting factors? Core Driver #1 (Rules of Commerce) is difficult to quantify but it is increasingly significant in a global economy with free trade policies. This driver is, "The rules of commerce, especially trends in international commerce and trade and reflected in increased market globalization, tend to work against increasing the numbers of wild salmon." Core Driver #2 (Increasing Scarcity of Key Natural Resources) is closely related to the historical decline of wild salmon and will likely be increasingly important in the future. This driver is, "The demand for critical natural resources, especially for high quality water, will continue to be great (and increase) through this century". Core Driver #3 (Regional Human Population Levels) has its basis in the projected increase of the Pacific Northwest's human population from its current 15 million to between 50 and 100 million by 2100; visualize "Seavan" with 24 million and "Portgene" with 12 million inhabitants. This driver is, "The number of humans in the region will continue to increase and their aggregate demands to support chosen life styles will constrain the abundance of wild salmon". Core Driver #4 (Individual and Collective Preferences) is intuitively obvious, closely meshed into the other three drivers and probably the most important. This driver is, "Individual and collective preferences directly determine the future of wild salmon, and substantial and pervasive changes must take place in these preferences if the current long-term, downward trend in wild salmon abundance is to be reversed". Salmon recovery will depend on society's collective attitudes and actions and not on elaborate strategies and recovery plans, even if based on the best available science. As Lackey states, "Just a decade after the first salmon listing, a severe drought, combined with ongoing electrical blackouts, provoked the Bonneville Power Administration to declare a power emergency, abandon previously agreed upon interagency salmon restoration commitments, and generate electricity flat out using water reserved to help salmon migrate." As a consequence, "In one of the most striking recent barometers of competing societal priorities, air conditioners, electricity, won out over both wild and hatchery-bred salmon, and with scant public opposition". These types of tradeoffs are a true reflection of our collective and relative priorities for wild salmon. In Lackey's concluding remarks, he predicts and offers up a challenge to those advocating for wild salmon; "Any policy or plan targeted to restore wild salmon runs must at least implicitly respond to these four core drivers or that plan will fail. It will be added to an already long list of prior, noble, earnest, and failed restoration attempts". As I read the most recent newsletter of the Skagit Watershed Council that included its sixth annual report and several articles on salmon recovery efforts in the Skagit River Watershed, I wondered whether the opportunity and optimism for salmon recovery expressed in these articles will, during this century, contradict Lackey's somewhat pessimistic prediction? However, Lackey states a more optimistic conclusion; "Even given all this, there are still salmon recovery options that are likely to be ecologically viable and probably socially acceptable, but the range of options continues to narrow. For professional fisheries experts, for fisheries scientists, technocrats, analysts, and managers, for those of us who are involved with salmon issues in California, Oregon, Washington, and Idaho: it is a time for neither crippling pessimism, nor for delusional optimism; rather it is a time for uncompromising ecological realism and forthright policy analysis". Robert Lackey has provided a specific set of rarely considered limiting factors (core drivers) for predicting the long-term success of salmon recovery in our region; a perspective that will require continuing, objective analysis. For access to this and several of Robert Lackey's other published articles go to http://www.epa.gov/wed/pages/staff/lackey/recntpub.htm.